原文传递
Travel time statistical modeling with the Halphen distribution family
| 题名： | Travel time statistical modeling with the Halphen distribution family |
| 其他题名： | Bates,J.,Polak,J.,Jones,P.,&Cook,A.(2001).The valuation of reliability for personal travel.Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review,37(2–3),191–229. |
| 正文语种： | 英文 |
| 作者： | Raphaël Delhome |
| 关键词： | Moment ratios;statistical modeling;travel time variability;travel times |
| 摘要： | This article introduces the Halphen distribution family for modeling travel time distributions and their reliability on single road links. This probability family originally used in hydrology has a set of relevant characteristics. It is composed of three probability distribution functions for which the mathematical properties are described here. The article uses a graphical representation, the δ-Moment Ratio Diagram( δ-MRD). This tool allows characterizing travel time reliability aswell as selecting best distribution candidateswithin the fitting processes, by considering empirical data sets. A systematicmethodology is developed to take advantage of both aspects. Frommaximum log-likelihood estimation, it is shown that Halphen distributions are among the best state-of-the-art solutions for the travel time modeling purpose. This global framework is validated using two empirical data sets: an urban data set gathered in Portland, Oregon (USA), and a periurban data set from Lyon (France). The model calibration is eased through the use of the δ-MRD; this property opens new research directions about themapping between traffic states and statistical modeling. It comes fromall these considerations that theHalphen family is suitable to describe accurately the travel time dynamics on single links. Therefore, it could be part of a decision support system for practitioners interested in travel time variability. |
| 出版年： | 2017 |
| 论文唯一标识： | J-96Y2017V21N06003 |
| 英文栏目名称： | Articles |
| 期刊名称： | Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems Technology Planning and Operations |
| 拼音刊名(出版物代码)： | J-96 |
| 卷： | 21 |
| 期： | 06 |
| 页码： | 452-464 |
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