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Quantifying travel time variability at a single bottleneck based on stochastic capacity and demand distributions
| 题名： | Quantifying travel time variability at a single bottleneck based on stochastic capacity and demand distributions |
| 其他题名： | Bartin,B.,&Ozbay,K.(2008).Comparison of tolls with estimated full marginal costs:Theory meets reality.Transportation Research Board 87th Annual Meeting,number 0-990,Washington,DC. |
| 正文语种： | 英文 |
| 作者： | Mingxin Li |
| 关键词： | bottleneck;stochastic capacity;stochastic demand;travel time variability |
| 摘要： | Travel time reliability, an essential factor in traveler route and departure time decisions, serves as an important quality of service measure for dynamic transportation systems. This article investigates a fundamental problem of quantifying travel time variability from its root sources: stochastic capacity and demand variations that follow commonly used log-normal distributions. A volume-to-capacity ratio-based travel time function and a point queue model are used to demonstrate how day-to-day travel time variability can be explained from the underlying demand and capacity variations. One important finding is that closed-form solutions can be derived to formulate travel time variations as a function of random demand/capacity distributions, but there are certain cases in which a closedform expression does not exist and numerical approximation methods are required. This article also uses probabilistic capacity reduction information to estimate time-dependent travel time variability distributions under conditions of non-recurring traffic congestion. The proposed models provide theoretically rigorous and practically useful tools for understanding the causes of travel time unreliability and evaluating the system-wide benefit of reducing demand and capacity variability. |
| 出版年： | 2017 |
| 论文唯一标识： | J-96Y2017V21N02001 |
| 英文栏目名称： | Articles |
| 期刊名称： | Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems Technology Planning and Operations |
| 拼音刊名(出版物代码)： | J-96 |
| 卷： | 21 |
| 期： | 02 |
| 页码： | 79-93 |
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