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The influence of alternative data smoothing prediction techniques on the performance of a two-stage short-term urban travel time prediction framework
| 题名： | The influence of alternative data smoothing prediction techniques on the performance of a two-stage short-term urban travel time prediction framework |
| 其他题名： | Ahmed,M.,&Cook,A.(1979).Analysis of freeway traffic time series data by using Box-Jenkins techniques.Transportation Research Board,722,1–9. |
| 正文语种： | 英文 |
| 作者： | Fangce Guo |
| 关键词： | data smoothing;intelligent transportation systems (ITS);machine learning method;short-term traffic prediction |
| 摘要： | This article investigates the impact of alternative data smoothing and traffic prediction methods on the accuracy of the performance of a two-stage short-term urban travel time prediction framework. Using this framework, we test the influence of the combination of two different data smoothing and four different prediction methods using travel time data fromtwo substantially different urban traffic environments and under both normal and abnormal conditions. This constitutes the most comprehensive empirical evaluation of the joint influence of smoothing and predictor choice to date. The results indicate that the use of data smoothing improves prediction accuracy regardless of the prediction method used and that this is true in different traffic environments and during both normal and abnormal (incident) conditions. Moreover, the use of data smoothing in general has a much greater influence on prediction performance than the choice of specific prediction method, and this is independent of the specific smoothing method used. In normal traffic conditions, the different prediction methods produce broadly similar results but under abnormal conditions, lazy learning methods emerge as superior. |
| 出版年： | 2017 |
| 论文唯一标识： | J-96Y2017V21N03005 |
| 英文栏目名称： | Articles |
| 期刊名称： | Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems Technology Planning and Operations |
| 拼音刊名(出版物代码)： | J-96 |
| 卷： | 21 |
| 期： | 03 |
| 页码： | 214-226 |
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