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原文传递 Evaluation of Models to Estimate Percent Time Spent Following on Two-Lane Highways
题名: Evaluation of Models to Estimate Percent Time Spent Following on Two-Lane Highways
其他题名: Al-Kaisy,A.,and Freedman,Z.(2010)."Estimating performance on twolane highways:Case study validation of a new methodology."Transp.Res.Rec.,2173,72-79.
正文语种: 英文
作者: José Elievam Bessa Jr.
关键词: Two-lane highway;Percent time spent following;Shockwave theory;Moving bottleneck theory;Queueing theory;Microsimulation
摘要: Four analytical models to estimate percent time spent following (PTSF) on two-lane highways were tested with data from 16 sites in Brazil. Besides percent following, the models are based on shockwave analysis, moving-bottleneck theory, or queuing theory. As direct measurement of the PTSF is impractical, PTSF values produced by a simulation program were the basis for comparison (observed PTSF values). The quality of the PTSF estimates produced by the four models was tested using 442 observations and four goodness-of-fit functions [mean normalized error (MNE), mean absolute normalized error (MANE), root-mean squared normalized error (RMSNE), and correlation coefficient r]. Although some degree of correlation between the estimated and observed PTSF values was detected, none of the four models was able to provide reliable estimates of PTSF, as indicated by high mean normalized errors (around 35%) and mean absolute normalized errors that were, on average, close to 50%.
出版年: 2017
论文唯一标识: P-72Y2017V143N05007
英文栏目名称: TECHNICAL PAPERS
doi: 10.1061/JTEPBS.0000032
期刊名称: Journal of Transportation Engineering
拼音刊名(出版物代码): P-72
卷: 143
期: 05
页码: 57-65
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