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原文传递 Estimation of Daily Bicycle Traffic Volumes Using Spatiotemporal Relationships

题名：	Estimation of Daily Bicycle Traffic Volumes Using Spatiotemporal Relationships
其他题名：	Alta Planning and Design and the Institute of Transportation Engineers(ITE)Pedestrian and Bicycle Council.(2009)."National bicycle and pedestrian documentation project."〈http://www.bikepeddocumentation.org/〉(Jun.22,2013).
正文语种：	英文
作者：	Mohamed El Esawey
关键词：	Bicycle volumes;Data gaps;Cycling data clearing houses
摘要：	Automatic counters (e.g., loop detectors) used for the continuous collection of cycling count data are subject to periodic malfunctions, leading to sporadic data gaps. This problem could affect the calculated values of the annual average daily bicycle (AADB) volumes and impact the estimates of the daily and monthly adjustment factors at these count stations. The impacts become more significant when the data gaps take place frequently and/or for long periods. This research addresses the problem of missing cycling traffic volumes at the count stations that experience frequent sensor malfunctions. The main hypothesis is that a strong correlation may exist among the cycling volumes of nearby facilities within a network. This correlation can be used to develop neighborhood models based on the available historical data. This study made use of a data set of more than 14,000 daily bicycle volumes from the city of Vancouver, Canada. The data were collected between 2009 and 2011 at 22 different count stations. A correlation analysis was first undertaken, and the results showed a strong correlation between the cycling volumes at most of the analyzed facilities. Furthermore, a cross-correlation analysis showed that the strongest correlation between each pair of count stations took place at a time lag of zero days (i.e., concurrent data). Accordingly, a correlation threshold was selected and used to define a set of neighbors for each cycling facility. Statistical models were developed to relate the daily cycling volumes of each pair of neighbors. The models were validated; the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used as an evaluation measure. In general, the MAPE was less than 20％ for most facilities when a correlation threshold of 0.6 was used to identify neighbors. However, the error dropped to approximately 15％ when higher thresholds were used. The concept should prove useful in estimating the missing cycling volumes in a monitoring program or a data clearinghouse implementation.
出版年：	2017
论文唯一标识：	P-72Y2017V143N11006
英文栏目名称：	TECHNICAL PAPERS
doi：	10.1061/JTEPBS.0000089
期刊名称：	Journal of Transportation Engineering
拼音刊名(出版物代码)：	P-72
卷：	143
期：	11
页码：	29-39