原文传递
Integration of Multinomial-Logistic and Markov-Chain Models to Derive Land-Use Change Dynamics
| 题名： | Integration of Multinomial-Logistic and Markov-Chain Models to Derive Land-Use Change Dynamics |
| 其他题名： | Abdel-Kader,F.H.(2011)."Digital soil mapping at pilot sites in the northwest coast of Egypt:A multinomial logistic regression approach."Egypt.J.Rem.Sens.Space Sci.,14(1),29–40. |
| 正文语种： | 英文 |
| 作者： | Cui Hao |
| 关键词： | Environmental monitoring;Land-use change;Multinomial logistic model;Markov chain |
| 摘要： | Land-use change reflects the relationship between human activities and environmental processes over time and space. Modeling land-use change dynamics is of particular environmental, social, and economic importance at regional scales. This paper develops a new approach to model land-use changes by making use of multiple categories that incorporate socioeconomic and environmental factors with multinomial logistic models and Markov chains to quantify the impact of these variables on land-use change dynamics for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010. Spatial autocorrelation and colinearity tests were utilised to screen the most suitable independent variables before modeling. The multinomial logistic model was evaluated by means of a likelihood ratio test and pseudo R2. A Markov transition matrix was then designed for integration with the multinomial logistic model to illustrate the temporal land-use change dynamics from 1990 to 2010 and to visualise the predicted land-use change map. The approach was calibrated for 2010 by cross comparing actual and simulated land-use maps. The predicted map of 2010 showed accuracies of 78.54, 70.38, and 57.25％ for urban land, arable land, and grassland, respectively; the total accuracy for the three simulated land-use types was 72.37％. A future land-use map for 2020 was predicted by means of the hybrid approach demonstrated in this paper, and this approach could be used in similar research. |
| 出版年： | 2015 |
| 论文唯一标识： | P-84Y2015V141N03026 |
| 英文栏目名称： | Technical Papers |
| doi： | 10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000222 |
| 期刊名称： | Journal of Urban Planning and Development |
| 拼音刊名(出版物代码)： | P-84 |
| 卷： | 141 |
| 期： | 03 |
| 页码： | 261-271 |
相关文献
- Quantification and Analysis of Land-Use Effects on Travel Behavior in Smaller Indian Cities: Case Study of Agartala
- Modeling Land-Use Change and Population Relocation Dynamics in Response to Different Sea Level Rise Scenarios: Case Study in Bay County, Florida
- Optimized Land-Use Scheme Based on Ecosystem Service Value: Case Study of Taiyuan, China
- LandSys II: Agent-Based Land Use–Forecast Model with Artificial Neural Networks and Multiagent Model
- Comprehensive Evaluation Framework for Sustainable Land Use: Case Study of Hong Kong in 2000–2010
- Sustainable Land-Use Allocation: A Multiobjective Particle Swarm Optimization Model and Application in Changzhou, China
检索历史
应用推荐
