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原文传递 Structural and Policy Changes in the Chinese Housing Market

题名：	Structural and Policy Changes in the Chinese Housing Market
其他题名：	Bernier,J.(1994)."Statistical detection of changes in geophysical series."Engineering risk in natural resources management,L.Duckstein and E.Parent,eds.,NATO Advanced Studies Institute Series Kluwer,Dordrecht,Netherlands,159–176.
正文语种：	英文
作者：	Eddie C. M. Hui
关键词：	Jump-point detection;Non-parametric statistical model;Residential house price index;Wavelet analysis;Housing policies;China;Real estate
摘要：	Housing price becomes a popular topic among nearly most of the investors in major Chinese cities. Recently, the housing markets appears to have shown signs of overheating and nonstationary trends, attributable to the collapse of the global economic environment and the introduction of local policies. The purpose of this study is to investigate if abrupt structural changes, which can be viewed as the effectiveness of government regulations and economic events but hidden in the housing price index, exist. An improved nonparametric statistical model, namely the wavelet detection technique, is introduced in this paper, based on which jump point(s) can be identified. Our empirical study illustrates that the domino effect as suggested by the detected change points are, geographically, from south to north, and from east to west, in contrast with general understanding. This may be a result of the owner-occupier demand in China's housing markets.
出版年：	2016
论文唯一标识：	P-84Y2016V142N01014
英文栏目名称：	Technical Papers
doi：	10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000294
期刊名称：	Journal of Urban Planning and Development
拼音刊名(出版物代码)：	P-84
卷：	142
期：	01
页码：	137-147