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原文传递 Sensitivity of Storm Surge Predictions to Atmospheric Forcing during Hurricane Isaac

题名：	Sensitivity of Storm Surge Predictions to Atmospheric Forcing during Hurricane Isaac
其他题名：	Battjes,J.A.,and Janssen,J.P.F.M.(1978)."Energy loss and set-up due to breaking of random waves."Proc.,16th Int.Conf.on Coastal Engineering,ASCE,Reston,VA,569-587.
正文语种：	英文
作者：	J. C. Dietrich
关键词：	ADCIRC;HWind;Generalized asymmetric Holland model (GAHM);unified wave interface coupled model (UWIN-CM)
摘要：	Storm surge and overland flooding can be predicted with computational models at high levels of resolution. To improve efficiency in forecasting applications, surge models often use atmospheric forcing from parametric vortex models, which represent the surface pressures and wind fields with a few storm parameters. The future of storm surge prediction could involve real-time coupling of surge and full-physics atmospheric models; thus, their accuracies must be understood in a real hurricane scenario. The authors compare predictions from a parametric vortex model (using forecast tracks from the National Hurricane Center) and a full-physics coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model during Hurricane Isaac (2012). The predictions are then applied within a tightly coupled, wave and surge modeling system describing the northern Gulf of Mexico and the floodplains of southwest Louisiana. It is shown that, in a hindcast scenario, a parametric vortex model can outperform a data-assimilated wind product, and given reasonable forecast advisories, a parametric vortex model gives reasonable surge forecasts. However, forecasts using a full-physics coupled model outperformed the forecast advisories and improved surge forecasts. Both approaches are valuable for forecasting the coastal impacts associated with tropical cyclones.
出版年：	2018
论文唯一标识：	P-108Y2018V144N01003
英文栏目名称：	TECHNICAL PAPERS
doi：	10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000419
期刊名称：	Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
拼音刊名(出版物代码)：	P-108
卷：	144
期：	01
页码：	12-35