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原文传递 Influence of Calibration Factors on Crash Prediction on Rural Two-Lane Two-Way Roadway Segments

题名：	Influence of Calibration Factors on Crash Prediction on Rural Two-Lane Two-Way Roadway Segments
正文语种：	英文
作者：	David Llopis-Castell′ o1 Daniel J. Findley, Ph.D., P.E.2
作者单位：	1Postdoctoral Research Assistant, Highway Engineering Research Group, Universitat Polit鑓nica de Val鑞cia, Camino de Vera, s/n, Valencia 46022, Spain (corresponding author). 2Senior Research Associate, Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State Univ., Centennial Campus Box 8601, Raleigh, NC 27695-8601.
关键词：	calibration；prediction；recommend；actor；different；horizon；element；conditions；rural；fluen
摘要：	Calibration factors are applied in the Highway Safety Manual predictive method for rural two-lane, two-way roadway segments to adjust the estimate for local conditions. This research aims to evaluate and recommend improvements related to the estimation of these calibration factors. An aggregated and disaggregated analysis was performed to study the influence of different calibration factors on the prediction of the number of crashes in North Carolina. As a result, those calibration factors based on both types of road elements (horizontal curves and tangents) led to overestimating and underestimating the number of crashes on tangents and horizontal curves, respectively. Furthermore, the calibration factors based on fatal and injury crashes allowed a more accurate estimation of the predicted number of crashes than those calibrated considering all severity levels. Therefore, it is recommended to apply different calibration factors for each type of road element and each type of crash severity.
出版年：	2019
期刊名称：	Journal of Transportation Engineering
卷：	145
期：	6
页码：	1-9