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QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT - ROAD PROJECT PREPARATION PERSPECTIVE
| 题名： | QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT - ROAD PROJECT PREPARATION PERSPECTIVE |
| 正文语种： | 英文 |
| 作者： | SUBIR KUMAR PODDER |
| 作者单位： | Associate Director, LEA Associates South Asia Pvt. Ltd, New Delhi, India |
| 关键词： | quantitative；distribution；instruments；analysis；parameter；rehabilitation；project；economic；development；dictat |
| 摘要： | The paper is aimed at outlining an approach for Quantitative Risk Assessment employing stochastic analysis (with a triangular distribution) so as to determine the combined influence of the dictating parameters on probabilities. It is appreciated that in the perspective of Road Transport Development Projects, and more specifically the Economic Analysis carried out in Feasibility Studies for Road Improvement and Rehabilitation Projects, such dictating parameters are Traffic and Project Cost. Besides construction cost, it is to be appreciated that the impacts of traffic sensitivity, manifested in level of service and congestion, impact the economics of a road project. Often these impacts are analysed separately. This paper aims at an approach for determining the impact (on Traditional Economic Analysis Instruments like EIRR, NPV) under a combined influence of the aforesaid two parameters. Such analysis requires treading a step beyond that what is required when probabilities are ascertained separately, and is the focus of this paper. |
| 出版年： | 2019 |
| 期刊名称： | Indian Highways |
| 卷： | 47 |
| 期： | 2 |
| 页码： | 39-49 |
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