原文传递
An Approach of Identifying the Criticalities of the Casual Factors Involved in a Marine Casualty
| 题名： | An Approach of Identifying the Criticalities of the Casual Factors Involved in a Marine Casualty |
| 正文语种： | 中文 |
| 作者： | 陳世宗 |
| 关键词： | Maritime safety;Accident analysis;Why Because Analysis;Bayesian Network |
| 摘要： | Helping the authority to identify the critical casual factors of a marine casualty is always a challenge to the field researchers. This study aims to propose a systematic analytic procedure which applies Why Because Analysis (WBA) and Bayesian Network (BN) to identify the causal factors and their criticalities which were involved in a marine accident. To begin with, this procedure figures out the causal factors and the causality amongst them using Why Because Analysis (WBA), and then a Bayesian Network model is established according to the WBA results. Having the BN model of the accident, the criticalities and the ranking of those causal factors can be acquired via a sensitivity analysis process applied to the BN model. A marine casualty is utilized as the case study to demonstrate the analytic procedure as well as to illustrate the usability and applicability of the proposed method. It is expected that the proposed methodology can be a useful tool to help the decision makers to identify the critical causal factors, and hence the similar accidents can be prevented from happening again more effectively. |
| 期刊名称： | 航运季刊 |
| 出版年： | 2017 |
| 期： | 01 |
| 页码： | 1-22 |
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