原文传递
EVALUATION OF ACCURACY OF U.S. DOT RAIL-HIGHWAY GRADE CROSSING ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS.
| 题名： | EVALUATION OF ACCURACY OF U.S. DOT RAIL-HIGHWAY GRADE CROSSING ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS. |
| 作者： | Mutabazi-MI; Berg-WD |
| 关键词： | RAILROAD/HIGHWAY-GRADE-CROSSINGS; ACCIDENTS-; PREDICTIONS-; MATHEMATICAL-MODELS; RESOURCE-ALLOCATION; TESTING-; EVALUATION-; ACCURACY-; ACCIDENT-RATES; WISCONSIN- |
| 摘要： | Several versions of the U.S. Department of Transportation rail-highway grade crossing accident prediction models have been developed and recommended for use in resource allocation procedures. The objective of this research was to test and evaluate the ability of these models to accurately predict future accident experience at individual grade crossings. Accident history and inventory data were assembled for 1,798 grade crossings in Wisconsin for the period from 1975 through 1989. Differences between the actual and predicted accident rates for 5- and 10-year forecast periods were evaluated using both the basic accident prediction models and the 5-year accident history adjustment to the basic model. It was found that the basic model from the first and third versions provided the best estimate of the long-run accident rate at individual grade crossings and were, therefore, recommended for use in resource allocation procedures. |
| 总页数： | Transportation Research Record. 1995. (1495) pp166-170 (4 Fig., 2 Tab., 5 Ref.) |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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