详情

原文传递 HOW TRANSPORTATION PLANNERS AND DECISION MAKERS ADDRESS RISK AND UNCERTAINTY.

题名：	HOW TRANSPORTATION PLANNERS AND DECISION MAKERS ADDRESS RISK AND UNCERTAINTY.
作者：	Mehndiratta-SR; Brand-D; Parody-TE
关键词：	Decision-making; Investments-; Metropolitan-areas; Metropolitan-planning-organizations; Options-approach; Risk-analysis; Risk-management; Transportation-planning; Uncertainty-
摘要：	A wide cross section of transportation planners was interviewed to understand how issues related to risk and uncertainty are presently addressed in the metropolitan transportation planning process. The results and insights from these interviews are reported. It was found that many of the current responses to risks in making decisions on transportation investments could usefully be explained and improved upon by the new options approach. The examples and the analyses of the interviews show that metropolitan planning organization planners and more senior transportation executives and decision makers are certainly aware of the risks they face in investing in major transportation projects. Furthermore, they already are capable of responding to those risks in ways that can be better appreciated and explained by the options approach. What is missing in metropolitan transportation planning, and in the public-sector investment community at large, is an appreciation that there are advantages to identifying and analyzing risks early in the planning process, and that investments involving risk can be systematically analyzed in a risk management plan that uses the real-options approach. This may result in (much) higher value investments to accomplish the stated investment goals, while avoiding serious mistakes in investing in projects that may fall far short of the investment goals.
总页数：	Transportation Research Record. 2000. (1706) pp46-53 (3 Ref.)
报告类型：	科技报告