摘要: |
Texas is the nation's highest energy consumer, and it is the highest emitter of carbon dioxide. Texans consume 23% more energy per capita on transportation than the nation as a whole. The state's contribution to global climate stabilization and local environmental quality requires reexamination of its transportation system. In this study, four scenarios were constructed reflecting different energy strategies that Texas could pursue to address these issues. These alternative scenarios were measured against a reference scenario that reflects current trends in transport policy. The first alternative, a "roll-back" scenario, examined the consequences of revoking the current alternative fuels programs. Moderate, aggressive and visionary scenarios were also developed consisting of increasingly aggressive policies to reduce energy consumption and emissions. Included in the analysis are various transportation control measures, employee trip-reduction programs, broader use of telecommunications technologies, accelerated vehicle scrappage, "feebates", mode shifts from automobile to various public transit alternatives and from truck to rail freight, and fuel taxes. The effects of these measures are discussed to identify the ones that have the greatest impact. Only if very aggressive policies are adopted--such as those modeled in the visionary scenario--will transport energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Texas stabilize, let alone decline. The major stumbling block to implementing such an aggressive suite of transportation policies is the long time frame required for the impacts to come to fruition; the conclusion is political difficulties in taking a long-term perspective will need to be overcome. |