原文传递
Forecasting Short-Term Freight Transportation Demand Poisson STARMA Model
| 题名： | Forecasting Short-Term Freight Transportation Demand Poisson STARMA Model |
| 作者： | Garrido-RA; Mahmassani-HS |
| 关键词： | Demand; Economic forecasting; Time duration; Freight transportation; Econometric models; Stochastic processes; Alternatives analysis; Time series analysis; Sensitivity analysis; Poisson distributions; Demand forecasting; Short term; Comparisons |
| 摘要： | A framework for analyzing, describing, and forecasting freight flows for operational and tactical purposes is presented. A dynamic econometric model is proposed. This model incorporates the spatial and temporal characteristics of freight demand within a stochastic framework. The model was applied in an actual context and its performance was compared with standard time series models (benchmark) for forecasting ability. The proposed model outperformed the benchmark from the econometric viewpoint. Extensive diagnostic checking and sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the modeling methodology for short-term forecasting applications. |
| 总页数： | Transportation Research Record.1998. pp 8-16 (FIGS: 1 Fig. TABS: 6 Tab. REFS: 15 Ref.) |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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