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原文传递 Trip Generation Modeling Using CHAID, a Criterion-Based Segmentation Modeling Tool

题名：	Trip Generation Modeling Using CHAID, a Criterion-Based Segmentation Modeling Tool
作者：	Strambi-O; van de Bilt, K-A
关键词：	Trip generation; Transportation; Mathematical models; Origin and destination; Travel patterns; Households; Sao Paulo (Brazil); Transportation models; Chi-squared automatic interaction detection; Origin-destination; Segmentation; Trip rate
摘要：	Conventional trip generation models are identified, as are the difficulties of model application typical of segmentation problems: identification and categorization of explanatory variables and of the interactions among them. The use of CHAID (Chi-Squared Automatic Interaction Detection), a criterion-based segmentation modeling tool, is explored to analyze household trip generation rates. CHAID models are presented in the form of a tree, each final node representing a group of homogenous households concerning daily trip making. An application to data from an origin-destination survey for Sao Paulo produced interesting results, in agreement with theoretical expectations and amenable to interpretation based on the likely activity-travel patterns of each group of households generated by the technique. CHAID can be used as an exploratory technique for aiding model development or as a model by itself. The use of CHAID results as a trip generation model was verified through an evaluation of its predictive capability in a cross comparison of two subsamples and through a comparison of observed versus predicted trips at a zone level; the segmentation of households produced by the technique provided good estimates of trip rates and zone totals. The application of a modeling approach requiring a highly disaggregate projection of the population may become possible considering the advances in methods for the generation of synthetic populations. The use of these methods in conjunction with a segmentation model represents an alternative to conventional trip generation models and an opportunity to introduce new population forecasting techniques into transportation planning practice.
总页数：	Transportation Research Record.1998. pp 24-31 (FIGS: 3 Fig. TABS: 2 Tab. REFS: 30 Ref.)
报告类型：	科技报告