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原文传递 CONFORMITY: LONG-TERM PROGNOSES FOR SELECTED OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREAS IN CALIFORNIA.

题名：	CONFORMITY: LONG-TERM PROGNOSES FOR SELECTED OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREAS IN CALIFORNIA.
作者：	Thompson-D; Baker-M; Wade-D
关键词：	CLEAN-AIR-ACT; STATE-IMPLEMENTATION-PLANS; CONFORMITY-; AIR-QUALITY; CALIFORNIA-; OZONE-; NONATTAINMENT-AREAS; EMISSIONS-; FORECASTS-; SENSITIVITY-; TRAVEL-GROWTH; SCENARIOS-
摘要：	The Clean Air Act requires that long-range transportation plans conform to emissions budgets established for nearer-term attainment years in state implementation plans (SIPs). This poses the question of whether travel growth in the intervening period may overwhelm the benefits of fleet turnover and adopted control strategies, with adverse implications for air quality and for conformity. Emissions trends are examined for three planning areas in California that are nonattainment for ozone. Forecasted emissions of ozone precursors for attainment years are compared with projected emissions for 2020. The latest model for estimation of on-road motor vehicle emissions in California is employed to estimate emissions, augmented by estimated effects of additional control strategies from the 1994 California ozone SIP. Alternative higher-growth travel forecasts for two areas, developed in consultation with regional transportation agency modeling staffs, are then applied to test the sensitivity of emissions to various travel growth scenarios. Ozone precursor emissions are found to remain within attainment year baseline levels for each growth scenario. Oxides of nitrogen emissions approach attainment year levels in one area, due to high projected growth in heavy-duty vehicle travel. Demonstrations of conformity to the ozone SIP for transportation planning horizon years are significantly aided by California's adopted and planned fuels and motor vehicle emissions control programs.
总页数：	Transportation Research Record. 1997. (1587) pp44-51 (1 Fig., 3 Tab., 6 Ref.)
报告类型：	科技报告