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DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF A REVENUE AND RIDERSHIP FORECASTING MODEL FOR FERRY SERVICE.
| 题名： | DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF A REVENUE AND RIDERSHIP FORECASTING MODEL FOR FERRY SERVICE. |
| 作者： | Baker-TB; Deardorf-RG |
| 关键词： | WASHINGTON-STATE; FERRIES-; REVENUES-; RIDERSHIP-; FORECASTING-; MATHEMATICAL-MODELS; BUDGET-ESTIMATES; ECONOMETRIC-MODELS; FARE-CATEGORIES; TIME-SERIES-ANALYSIS; CAPACITY-CONSTRAINT |
| 摘要： | A combination of statistical approaches is used to develop near- to mid-range ridership and revenue forecasting models for Washington State Ferries for use in quarterly budget updates. Econometric regression models use historical and forecast trends in state economic and demographic variables to project systemwide ridership by six fare categories for different fare scenarios. Time series analysis models are used to project ferry ridership at the individual route level by six fare categories. The sum of the time series route forecasts is then calibrated to the econometric systemwide totals to yield unconstrained ridership forecasts by route and fare category. A capacity constraint model handles cases where the demand for vehicle travel exceeds vessel capacity by generating ridership ceilings for different service scenarios. Finally, the appropriate fares are applied to the ridership projections to arrive at revenue forecasts over a 10-year horizon. |
| 总页数： | Transportation Research Record. 1997. (1608) pp40-46 (4 Fig.) |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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