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原文传递 ON-TIME RELIABILITY IMPACTS OF ATIS, VOLUME III: IMPLICATIONS FOR ATIS INVESTMENT STRATEGIES.

题名：	ON-TIME RELIABILITY IMPACTS OF ATIS, VOLUME III: IMPLICATIONS FOR ATIS INVESTMENT STRATEGIES.
作者：	Jung-S; Larkin-J; Shah-V; Toppen-A; Vasudevan-M; Wunderlich-K
关键词：	Accuracy-; Advanced-traveler-information-systems; Benefits-; Cost-effectiveness; Deployment-; Driving-; Geography-; HOWLATE-; Highway-travel; Intelligent-transportation-systems; Investments-; Los-Angeles-California; Minneapolis-Minnesota; On-time-performance; On-time-reliability; Saint-Paul-Minnesota; Simulation-; Traffic-congestion; Travel-time; Trip-length; Washington-District-of-Columbia
摘要：	The effect of Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) accuracy and extent of ATIS roadway instrumentation on the on-time reliability benefits to routine users of ATIS are evaluated through the application of Heuristic On-line Web-linked Arrival Time Estimation (HOWLATE) methodology. The HOWLATE methodology employs archived estimates of roadway travel times to recreate hypothetical, retrospective paired driving trials between travelers with and without ATIS. Previous research using this technique demonstrated that travelers who receive notification of current congestion prior to departure can realize substantial time management benefits from improved on-time reliability and trip predictability, and that these savings can be converted to a dollar-valued benefit. In this report, the authors expand the repertoire of applications of HOWLATE to investigate the impacts of ATIS accuracy and geographic coverage levels on the value of ATIS service, and how to best conduct ATIS evaluations using small data sets. They then examine the implications of these findings on the development of cost-effective ATIS deployment strategies. Based on 12-month case studies in the cities of Washington DC, Minneapolis/St. Paul, and Los Angeles they predict that the net benefit from ATIS use across all potential trips in each network is positive only if the error in ATIS reporting is below the range of 10% to 21%. For ATIS services with worse accuracy, only certain subsets of the driving populations such as those with relatively long or highly variable trips may realize any benefit. Further, they observed that near-optimal geographical deployments of ATIS can garner as much as 50% to 80% of benefits from as little as the first 30% of deployment. Yet, identifying the near-optimal is not as simple as ATIS implementation on links with highest variability. In making effective tradeoff decisions about how to invest in improved ATIS, be it increasing geographic coverage or increasing accuracy, the findings of this report underscore the importance of understanding what levels of accuracy are required to generate ATIS user benefit based on regional day-to-day roadway variability.
总页数：	2003/05. pp105 (Refs., 1 App.)
报告类型：	科技报告