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AVIATION DEMAND FORECASTING: A SURVEY OF METHODOLOGIES.
| 题名： | AVIATION DEMAND FORECASTING: A SURVEY OF METHODOLOGIES. |
| 关键词： | Aircraft-; Airports-; Aviation-; Demand-; Fleet-forecasts; Forecasting-; Market-share; Methodology-; Passenger-traffic-measurement; Private-enterprise; Production-; Regions- |
| 摘要： | The objective of this circular is to provide examples of the diversity of techniques used to forecast the many measures used in aviation system and market analyses. By intent, almost all examples provided herein illustrate methodologies or approaches to forecasting used by private sector manufacturers and consultants. These examples illustrate approaches to aviation forecasting that receive less public attention than those employed by the Federal Aviation Administration, the International Civil Aviation Organization and some manufacturers, such as Boeing and Airbus, all of whom make their documentation available to the public. Yet these approaches provide equally valid insights into how to think about aviation activity measurement and future outlooks. Most of these forecasts are quantitative, but not all are econometric. Some require extensive computer modeling; others require minimal computer capability. Some are descriptions of commercially available products, while the complete details of others are corporate confidential. The descriptions are provided using a common format to facilitate comparison, but the content varies with the individual and firm that prepared the description. The contents of this circular are arranged in the following sections: Forecasts at a Single Location; Forecasts for a Multi-Airport Region; Traffic Flow Forecasts and Market Shares; and Aircraft Production and Fleet Forecasts. |
| 总页数： | Transportation Research E-Circular. 2002/08. pp49 |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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