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原文传递 FRAMEWORK TO CONSIDER THE EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING THE LEVEL OF SERVICE OF SIGNALIZED AND UNSIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS.

题名：	FRAMEWORK TO CONSIDER THE EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING THE LEVEL OF SERVICE OF SIGNALIZED AND UNSIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS.
作者：	Khatib-Z; Kyte-M
关键词：	Decision-making; Forecasting-; Highway-capacity; Level-of-service; Signalized-intersections; Travel-demand; Uncertainty-; Unsignalized-intersections
摘要：	One question that is not often considered in highway capacity analysis is the effect that uncertainty in the input parameters has on the output results. Typically, analysts produce a single number that represents the performance of the facility, with no statement of a likely range of variation in the result. And yet we know that there is variability in our input data. What is the effect, for example, of not knowing if the demand on a given intersection approach, is 2700 veh/h or 3000 veh/h? What is the effect of knowing that the range of truck percentage is between 5% and 10%? It is interesting to note that modelers of future traffic demand often say that their forecasts are within 25% of the value cited; some say that this forecast error is even higher! What is the impact of this uncertainty on capacity analysis? It depends on the kind of problem that we are trying to solve: do we want to know how many lanes are required for a given approach? Do we want to know whether stop control or signal control is most appropriate for a given intersection? Do we want a precise estimate of the timing for a signalized intersection? We believe that it is the responsibility of the analyst to report this uncertainty with his or her estimate of level of service and how it will affect the problem or decision under consideration. The purpose of this paper is to consider which variables have a significant effect on level of service and to suggest a framework for considering this issue in the analysis of signalized and unsignalized intersections.
总页数：	Conference Title: Fourth International Symposium on Highway Capacity. Location: Maui, Hawaii. Sponsored by: Transportation Research Board. Held: 20000627-20000701. Transportation Research Circular. 2000/06. pp348-356 (2 Fig., 1 Tab., 3 Ref.)
报告类型：	科技报告