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UNCERTAINTY IN SATURATION FLOW PREDICTIONS.
| 题名： | UNCERTAINTY IN SATURATION FLOW PREDICTIONS. |
| 作者： | Tarko-AP; Tracz-M |
| 关键词： | Countermeasures-; Errors-; Estimates-; Highway-capacity; Level-of-service; Saturation-flow; Signalized-intersections; Standard-error; Traffic-delay; Traffic-models; Uncertainty- |
| 摘要： | Existing capacity manuals for signalized intersections admit rather considerable standard errors of saturation flow prediction reaching 8-10%. Errors in saturation flow predictions carry over to delay estimates and, consequently, they may lead to erroneous level of service estimates. There are three primary sources of errors in saturation flow predictions related to saturation flow models. First, temporal variance in a saturation flow causes a measurement error. This error increases uncertainty of saturation flow predictions since the measured values are used to develop predictive formulae of saturation flow. Second, omission of some capacity factors in predictive models increases the site-to-site variance of saturation flows not explained by the models. Third, an inadequate functional relationship between model variables and saturation flow rates adds a prediction bias. The discussion of these error components and pertaining countermeasures is presented. |
| 总页数： | Conference Title: Fourth International Symposium on Highway Capacity. Location: Maui, Hawaii. Sponsored by: Transportation Research Board. Held: 20000627-20000701. Transportation Research Circular. 2000/06. pp310-321 (6 Fig., 2 Tab., Refs.) |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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