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USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION FOR PAVEMENT COST ANALYSIS.
| 题名： | USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION FOR PAVEMENT COST ANALYSIS. |
| 作者： | Herbold-Keith-D |
| 关键词： | Case-studies; Life-cycle-costing; Monte-Carlo-method; Pavement-design; Probability-theory; Risk-analysis; Simulation-; Technology-transfer; U.S.-Federal-Highway-Administration |
| 摘要： | The Federal Highway Administration's Demonstration Project No. 115 (DP-115), Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) in Pavement Design, is a technology-transfer to demonstrate the application of LCCA to pavement design. To better understand the practical aspects of the use of probability and Monte Carlo simulation in LCCA, the Federal Highway Administration developed a model and made arrangements with 10 state highway agencies, the American Concrete Pavement Association, and the National Asphalt Pavement Association to prepare case studies illustrating the application of risk analysis to LCCA in pavement design. This article summarizes the results of the case studies, which show that with limited training in probabilistic principles and in the application of risk-analysis software, state highway agency personnel can apply the probabilistic approach to their current life-cycle cost-analysis procedures. |
| 总页数： | Public Roads. 2000/11. 64(3) pp2-6 (5 Tab., 3 Ref.) |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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