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原文传递 AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF CAR AND FUEL TAXES ON CO2 EMISSIONS IN JAPAN AND GERMANY.

题名：	AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF CAR AND FUEL TAXES ON CO2 EMISSIONS IN JAPAN AND GERMANY.
作者：	Hayashi-Y; Kato-H; Teodoro-RVR; Kurani-KS (Editor); Sperling-D (Editor)
关键词：	Carbon-dioxide; Choice-models; Fuel-taxes; Germany-; Japan-; Motor-vehicles; Revenues-; Sensitivity-analysis; Taxation-; Taxes-; Vehicle-mix
摘要：	This study presents the formulation of a model system to analyze the effects of car-related taxes for the cases of Japan and Germany. In particular, the model examines the changes in car fleet composition, the total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and the tax revenues due to different car and fuel taxation schemes. The model system is comprised of choice models designed to determine the effects of varying the weights of tax rates in the different stages of car ownership, the change in vehicle class and age mix, and road users' driving pattern, car class choice and behavior towards car disposal. The analysis conducted for the case of Japan highlights the effects of tax reform in 1989; a model sensitivity test is conducted by forecasting different taxation scenarios. Preliminary analyses for the case of Germany includes the impact of the drop in fuel prices in 1985 and the lower car tax introduced along with the ECE 15/04 standards in 1986. The comparison of the modeling parameters between the models for Japan and Germany, and the sensitivity analysis of the model for Japan identify the general effects of car and fuel taxes. Based on these results, the authors propose the use of a "spiral" taxation scheme in order to optimize the combined effects of car-related taxes.
总页数：	Conference Title: Transportation, Energy, and Environmental Policy: Managing Transitions. Location: Monterey, California. Sponsored by: Transportation Research Board
报告类型：	科技报告