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原文传递 Traffic Crash Experience of a Cohort of Young Queenslanders in the last decade of the twentieth century.

题名：	Traffic Crash Experience of a Cohort of Young Queenslanders in the last decade of the twentieth century.
作者：	Victor Siskind
关键词：	Traffic Crash; Experience; Cohort; Young Queenslanders; last decade of the twentieth century; licences
摘要：	While there are many cross-sectional estimates of casualty and fatal crash rates among young adults, I have found few reports of attempts to follow a large cohort of such persons over time. In New Zealand a cohort of about nine hundred young people was established and followed for a variety of outcomes, including traffic crashes (Horwood and Fergusson, 2000), but this number is somewhat modest for estimation purposes. A cohort of school students, spread over a number of grades at enrolment, was studied by Waller and her colleagues in Michigan. Almost 14,000 who were known to have obtained drivers licences in that state were followed for an average of 7 years (Waller et al, 2001). The analogous figure for our cohort is 9 years (range 3 to 12 years). In Waller’s cohort, 58% had a reported traffic crash as driver (sic) during the follow-up period, presumably not all involving injuries. An equivalent proportion in the Queensland cohort is difficult to calculate: 11,080 crashes among vehicle controllers in our cohort were identified, the majority involving only property damage, but including persons with more than one crash. The proportion of cohort members who ever obtained a licence is unknown, but if we assume a figure of 90% for both the licensed and the distinct individuals, the crash proportion over an average of 9 years works out at under 20%. Waller’s group concentrated on “serious” offences and “at-fault accidents”, making direct comparisons with their results unhelpful.
总页数：	ROAD SAFETY RESEARCH, POLICING AND EDUCATION CONFERENCE, 2001, MELBOURNE, VICTORIA, AUSTRALIA. 2001. 7P
报告类型：	科技报告