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原文传递 Further modelling of some major factors influencing road trauma trends in Victoria.

题名：	Further modelling of some major factors influencing road trauma trends in Victoria.
作者：	NARAYAN-S (Monash University, Australia); NEWSTEAD-S (Monash University, Australia); CAMERON-M (Monash University, Australia)
关键词：	ACCIDENT-; 1643-; CAUSE-; 9003-; MATHEMATICAL-MODEL; 6473-; STATISTICS-; 6555-; ACCIDENT-RATE; 1612-; BREATH-TEST; 1542-; SPEED-; 5408-; PHOTOGRAPHY-; 6751-; ADVERTISING-; 1692-; DRUNKENNESS-; 1783-; ACCIDENT-BLACK-SPOT; 1663-; ACCIDENT-PREVENTION; 1661-; DEVELOPMENT-; 9013-; SEVERITY-ACCID,-INJURY; 1623-; AUSTRALIA-; 8006-; CONFERENCE-; 8525-
摘要：	Based on previous work that has estimated the contribution of some major factors in reducing road trauma in Victoria over the period 1990-1993, this study has made use of the statistical analysis methods developed to extend these estimates to 1996. The major factors considered in the study have stemmed from the results of a number of studies in Victoria which have evaluated the effects of countermeasures and other factors which appear to be responsible for the substantial reduction in road trauma since 1989. The factors for which contributions have been estimated were: Increased random breath testing, supported by mass media publicity; Speed cameras, supported by mass media publicity; Reduced economic activity; Reduced alcohol sales; Improvements to the road system through treatment of accident black spots. The percentage change in road trauma levels due to each factor, as measured by serious casualty crash numbers, has been estimated for each year over the period 1990-1996. Models linking variations in serious casualty crashes to various factors were computed using monthly crash data from the years 1983 to 1996. An estimation was made, for the period 1990-1996, of the contributions of random breath testing, speed camera tickets issued, levels of road safety television publicity, unemployment rates and alcohol sales, to the reduction in the number of serious casualty crashes . A method of separately estimating the effect of accident black spot treatments and desegregating this from the trend was described and applied. (a) For the covering entry of this conference, please see IRRD abstract no. E200232.
总页数：	ROAD SAFETY RESEARCH, POLICING, EDUCATION CONFERENCE, 1998, WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND, VOL 1. 1998. pp353-360 (6 Refs.)
报告类型：	科技报告