摘要: |
As new technologies are introduced into society, they often come with a mixed set of positive and negative impacts. The purpose of this paper is to offer a framework to explore the shortand long-term impacts of the development of ITS technologies on the sustainability of the ground passenger transportation system. The definition of a sustainable transportation system offered in this paper includes as conditions of sustainability the conservation of fuel resources and preservation of the environment, the minimization of traffic congestion and vehicle crashes, and the maximization of access to social and economic opportunity. This definition of sustainability is consistent with the goals of the national ITS Program that include safety, enhanced personal mobility, and environmental concerns. Were technology to operate in a vacuum, there might be only positive impacts, but human behavior influences the impact of its use. Because of this, it is not always straightforward to determine the long-term impacts of a technology deployment. The role of ITS technology in contributing to a sustainable transportation system is explored by comparing the contributions of each of twenty-nine ITS user services with the five conditions of sustainability over the short and long terms. These contributions of the ITS user services are hypothesized to occur in positive, negative, or neutral directions. Initial expectations indicate that those technologies that serve to increase traffic throughput may have initial positive impacts, but negative ones in the longer term due to induced demand for vehicle usage. On the other hand, those user services that contribute to safety will do no harm and have promise for enduring long-term benefits. These observations raise questions regarding the efficacy of investments in implementation of those ITS technologies that can cause harm in the long-run and could exacerbate transportation-based societal inequity. They also suggest future research on analytically testing the hypotheses put forth. |