摘要: |
The Automated Highway System (AHS) is an integration of electronics, vehicles, and highways that will allow vehicles to be driven under automatic control. The National Automated Highway System Consortium has been formed with the US Department of Transportation and nine organizations to develop and build a working prototype of an AHS. As part of its in-depth analysis of AHS, the Consortium is studying the question of deployment. Deployment of AHS represents a new level of complexity because of the interdependence of vehicle and highway components. Deployment will also be greatly influenced by the actions of the Consortium itself and it is obviously important that these influences be well understood. At least two significant options exist for AHS, operation only on dedicated lanes, and operation in mixed traffic (mixed with manually driven vehicles). Each has different factors driving deployment. This paper describes models that have been built to explore the influence of these factors. The model for dedicated lanes is based on the natural growth mechanism that demand for more AHS vehicles is stimulated by dedicated AHS lanes being built and demand for more dedicated lanes is stimulated as more people buy AHS vehicles, creating a positive feedback loop. This growth process can be launched by an operational test which forces the deployment of the first system. Mixed traffic AHS vehicles, which do not require dedicated lanes to be built, are, however constrained by the availability of technology. It is probable that background science and technology advances will eventually make mixed traffic AHS feasible, but the establishment of the time frame for that needed technology is a serious need in order to make a reasonable comparison between the two approaches to AHS. |