摘要: |
In-Vehicle Information Systems (IVIS), currently under development, are a keystone of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). IVIS are designed to acquire, filter, prioritize, and display information about the driving environment to the driver of a road vehicle. As IVIS are developed, it is important to estimate their cost-effectiveness. The paper develops and applies a cost estimation methodology, that is consistent with the national ITS architecture, to make projections of the costs of IVIS. Projections are based on the costs of the equipments' components. Economies of scale and an industry-experience curve are also incorporated into these estimates. The methodology also provides estimates of the incremental costs for vehicle users, infrastructure requirements, and deployment of additional ITS services. Cost projections for two market packages (i.e., broadcast traveler information and interactive traveler information) are made for the Urbansville and Thruville scenarios considered in the national ITS architecture study for a 10-year deployment period. Results for the Urbansville and Thruville scenarios indicate life cycle costs (in 1996 dollars) of $87 million and $13 million, respectively, for the broadcast traveler information market package. Life cycle costs of the interactive traveler information market package are about 1.3 times higher. As with any cost projections, their validity depends on accurate assumptions about the IVIS designs and concepts, and on the availability of reliable cost data for individual equipment components. |