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原文传递 DECISION SUPPORT FOR AUTOMATED HIGHWAY SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT.

题名：	DECISION SUPPORT FOR AUTOMATED HIGHWAY SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT.
作者：	Lathrop-J; Michael-JB
关键词：	DECISION-MAKING; AUTOMATED-HIGHWAY-SYSTEMS; DEVELOPMENT-; DEPLOYMENT-; DECISION-TREES; UNCERTAINTY-; SUPPLY-; DEMAND-; TECHNOLOGY-; MARKETS-; HUMAN-PERFORMANCE; MODELS-
摘要：	In this paper the authors present a decision-tree modeling framework for Automated Highway System (AHS) development and deployment decision support. It has been named "Reactive Adaptive Management Portfolio" (RAMP). They describe how RAMP can be used as a basis for choosing a development/deployment strategy. It addresses six key challenges faced by the AHS developer, all arising from technological, social and institutional changes and uncertainties: supply side (technological) uncertainties; demand side (market, public acceptance) uncertainties; human side (human performance) uncertainties; uncertain multiple application scenarios that are changing; uncertain interfaces with existing systems that are changing; and uncertain performance and deployment times of AHS components by other AHS developers. RAMP accommodates these sources of uncertainty by explicitly modeling them, and allowing for the deferral of development and deployment decisions until later decision forks are reached. That is, RAMP represents an AHS development/deployment plan as an orderly, planned sequence of decision points, each one deferred until important uncertainties are resolved enough for the best possible (i.e., most informed) decision to be made, balanced against any data/analysis costs and penalties for deferral of commitment to any particular design or action. The net result is that there is no one development/deployment sequence, but a set of paths through the decision tree. Which path is actually chosen depends upon how future uncertainties are resolved. The AHS developer/stakeholder does not have to make an up-front commitment to a particular pathway or a particular endpoint.
总页数：	Conference Title: Merging the Transportation and Communications Revolutions. Abstracts for ITS America Seventh Annual Meeting and Exposition. Location: Washington, D.C. Sponsored by: ITS America. Held: 19970602-19970605. 1997. pp11
报告类型：	科技报告