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原文传递 PERFORMANCE HISTORY AND PREDICTION MODELING FOR MINNESOTA PAVEMENTS.

题名：	PERFORMANCE HISTORY AND PREDICTION MODELING FOR MINNESOTA PAVEMENTS.
作者：	Lukanen-EO; Han-C
关键词：	CONFERENCES-; MINNESOTA-; PAVEMENT-PERFORMANCE; PERFORMANCE-PREDICTION-MODELS; PAVEMENT-LIFE; PAVEMENT-MANAGEMENT-SYSTEMS; PAVEMENT-DISTRESS; FIELD-DATA; PAVEMENT-CONDITION; TRANSVERSE-CRACKING; LONGITUDINAL-CRACKING; ALLIGATORING-; RUTTING-; RAVELING-; PATCHING-; FLEXIBLE-PAVEMENTS; SPALLING-; FAULTING-; JOINTS-; D-CRACKING; ROUGHNESS-; SERVICEABILITY-; OVERLAY-THICKNESS; RIGID-PAVEMENTS
摘要：	Issues and problems encountered in developing performance prediction models for pavements in Minnesota are discussed. The purpose of these models is to predict remaining life. The models are being incorporated into the Minnesota Department of Transportation pavement management system. The development of the models was centered on the prediction of future distress levels rather than the prediction of a composite index. The prediction models were based on about 13,000 surface condition data records collected on the entire pavement system between 1983 and 1991. The modeling was based on simple two variable models relating distress density to age. Additional variables such as surface type, traffic, and structure were handled by grouping the pavements by specific attributes. The project resulted in a set of performance prediction models for about 100 pavement groupings. The distresses modeled included transverse and longitudinal cracking at two severity levels, multiple cracking, alligator cracking, rutting, raveling, and patching for flexible pavements, and spalled joints, faulted joints, cracked panels, damaged panels, broken panels, faulted panels, overlaid panels, patched panels, and D-cracking. Roughness in terms of the present serviceability rating (PSR) was also modeled. The findings relate to the difficulties encountered in the process rather than traditional findings such as model coefficients. Examples of some of the difficulties follow: for specific sections, the data were variable; trends could be identified only by grouping the data from a number of sections together. Since pavement lives are longer than the window of time covered by the data, the grouping of sections combined older sections, "survivors", with new sections that included the poor performers. The poor performers would supply data only until they were rehabilitated, at which time they moved to a different group. Also explored was the increase in the PSR due to the overlay thickness. The results show virtually no correlation in the improved PSR to overlay thickness. A further analysis was performed including ride and surface conditions before overlay instead of thickness as independent variables. The better correlation exists. However, the satisfactory results in statistics could not be obtained. It appears that some factors that were not part of the data set had a significant effect on performance, such as maintenance policies, construction or material qualities, project priorities, and section lengths. Since the data were not available, one could only speculate as to the effects.
总页数：	Conference Title: Third International Conference on Managing Pavements. Location: San Antonio, Texas. Sponsored by: Transportation Research Board
报告类型：	科技报告