原文传递
Rational Error Correction
| 题名： | Rational Error Correction |
| 作者： | Tinsley, P. A. |
| 关键词： | Economic theories; Error correction; Macroeconomics |
| 摘要： | This paper examines an alternative explanation for the poor empirical properties of rational expectations models. Because most rational expectations restrictions are inherently dynamic due to the forecasting requirements of constraints on dynamic adjustment, a plausible source of difficulty could be the sharp friction priors typically imposed on agent responses. The standard dynamic specification in rational expectations models utilizes geometric lead response schedules to anticipated future events and geometric lag responses to recent news. Because this two-sided geometric response schedule is not a clear implication of economic theory, a generalized polynomial frictions specification is explored in this paper. Suggested interpretations of generalized frictions range from costs of adjusting weighted averages of current and lagged actions to convolutions of geometric random delay distributions of agent responses. |
| 总页数： | 38p |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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