摘要: |
With its trend line now looking almost vertical, the three-month-moving-average inflation rate for truckload hit 18.9% in the latest quarter. Over the same time period, long-distance LTL and local trucking companies, respectively, report that prices increased at an 8.3% and 8.6% rate. Clearly, strong post-pandemic demand coupled with supply problems due to a lack of drivers and tractors are pushing price hikes into overdrive. These dynamics will continue at least through this year. Not stepping out on a limb, our forecasts have been revised upward again. The trucking industry's annual inflation rate is expected to be at least 10% in 2021 before slowing to a more reasonable 2.5% pace in 2022. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics reports that U.S. air cargo revenue per ton mile increased 16% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to a year earlier. Meanwhile, over the same time period, the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey of U.S. airlines shows average transaction prices for planes carrying cargo and mail increased only 3.2%. The second quarter price data so far also has also not responded to the BTS demand surge. In April and May, prices for moving cargo on scheduled flights were up just 0.3% and on nonscheduled flights, up 4.3%. With data in flux, the forecast remains unchanged. Prices for flying cargo on scheduled flights are forecast to increase only 1.6% this year and 1% next year. |