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Bridging Analysis for Estimating the Benefits of Active Safety Technologies; Final rept. 1 Sep 94-31 1995.10
| 题名： | Bridging Analysis for Estimating the Benefits of Active Safety Technologies; Final rept. 1 Sep 94-31 1995.10 |
| 作者： | Campbell, K. L.; Joksch, H. C.; Green, P. E. |
| 关键词： | Traffic safety; Transportation management; Accident prevention; Data acquisition; Motor vehicle accidents; Accident preventions; Statistical analysis |
| 摘要： | The objective of this project was to develop a methodology for estimating the safety benefits of active safety technology. Accident data, the traditional safety measure, are not sufficient because too great an exposure is required to achieve adequate sample sizes and the events leading to the collision often cannot be determined. Consequently, a method relating pre-collision events to safety is needed. The Traffic Conflicts Technique developed in the United States, Europe, and Canada in the mid-70's to address intersection safety is such a method. Traffic conflicts are near-collision events that are recorded by trained observers. This report describes an extension of the traffic conflicts technique to incorporate continuous measurement of crash margin measures, such as time to collision. This approach asserts that the probability of a collision can be estimated from the frequency of small crash margins. Extreme value theory is offered as a robust statistical method to compare probability levels in the tails of observed distributions of crash margins. The approach is illustrated using headway data from the FOCAS project. A final section describes future work that must be done in order to support application of this methodology to the estimation of the safety benefits of advanced technology. |
| 总页数： | 34p |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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