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Probabilistic Weather Forecasting for Winter Road Maintenance.
| 题名： | Probabilistic Weather Forecasting for Winter Road Maintenance. |
| 作者： | berrocal, v. j. raftery, a. gneiting, t. steed, r. c. |
| 关键词： | maintenance, ratios, monte carlo method, deicing systems, statistical processes, winter, ice formation, decision making, predictions |
| 摘要： | Road maintenance is one of the main problems Departments of Transportation face during winter time. Anti-icing, i.e. applying chemicals to the road to prevent ice formation, is often used to keep the roads free of ice. Given the preventive nature of anti-icing, accurate predictions of road ice are needed. Currently, anti-icing decisions are usually based on deterministic weather forecasts. However the costs of the two kinds of error are highly asymmetric because the cost of a road closure due to ice is much greater than that of taking anti-icing measures. As a result, probabilistic forecasts are needed to optimize decisionmaking. / NOTE: Technical rept. / Availability Note: Product reproduced from digital image. Order this product from NTIS by: phone at 1-800-553-NTIS (U.S. customers); (703)605-6000 (other countries); fax at (703)605-6900; and email at orders@ntis.gov. NTIS is located at 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, VA, 22161, USA. |
| 总页数： | u0717；28p |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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