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原文传递 Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in the Port Planning Process

题名：	Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in the Port Planning Process
正文语种：	eng
作者：	Majid Eskafi;Ali Dastgheib;Poonam Taneja;Gudmundur F. Ulfarsson;Gunnar Stefansson;Ragnheidur I. Thorarinsdottir
作者单位：	Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering Univ. of Iceland Hjardarhagi 2-6 107 Reykjavik Iceland;Dept. of Coastal and Urban Risk and Resilience IHE Delft Institute for Water Education Westvest 7 2611 AX Delft The Netherlands;Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Delft Univ. of Technology Stevinweg 1 2628 CN Delft The Netherlands;Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering Univ. of Iceland Hjardarhagi 2-6 107 Reykjavik Iceland;Faculty of Industrial Engineering Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science Univ. of Iceland Hjardarhagi 2-6 107 Reykjavik Iceland;Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering Univ. of Iceland Hjardarhagi 2-6 107 Reykjavik Iceland
关键词：	Adaptive port planning; Uncertainty; Flexible port; Iceland
摘要：	Ports are complex engineering systems that have always been evolving to satisfy the new or changing demands of stakeholders. However, the ever-growing complexity in port sectors in a volatile environment creates a high degree of uncertainty in port planning projects. This study presents a structured framework to deal with uncertainties in the port planning process. Stakeholder analysis, different methods of addressing uncertain developments, and SWOT analysis were jointly used to develop the framework. Effective actions were planned in response to opportunities and vulnerabilities derived from uncertainties that manifest in a projected lifetime. Face-to-face interviews with key stakeholders and literature review were conducted to identify uncertainties and planning horizons. The framework was applied to the Ports of Isafjordur Network in Iceland. The results show that demand for aquaculture and cruise activities create the main uncertainties for the port network. Uncertainties mainly present opportunities in the short-term horizon, while in the middle-term horizon the port network is confronted with multiple vulnerabilities. The nonlinearity of dealing with uncertainty by application of the framework provides a robust and better plan toward its success in a dynamic world. The framework supports decision making under uncertainty by facilitating adaptive port planning.
出版年：	2021
期刊名称：	Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering
卷：	147
期：	3