关键词: |
PREDICTIONS, LOCKS(WATERWAYS), WATER TRAFFIC, COMMODITIES, DELAY, ECONOMICS, MODELS, NAVIGATION, PERMUTATIONS, REHABILITATION, SIMULATION, TRANSPORTATION, COMMERCE, WATERWAYS. |
摘要: |
The Inland Navigation System is an important source of commodity transportation in the U.S. Lock facilities are a necessary part of the system, but can be a source of tow delays. The expansion and rehabilitation of locks present an interesting problem in capital budgeting. The traffic flows at locks are interdependent, i.e. the delays at one lock are related to the delays at one or more other locks. Interdependence gives rise to difficulties in predicting delays as well as an overwhelming number of permutations of project sequences. In this report, a method of predicting delays among interdependent locks is developed and used for economic evaluation. The evaluation technique is utilized by a heuristic project sequencing algorithm in obtaining an efficient capital budgeting solution for lock improvement projects. Interdependent locks, Lock delays, Capital budgeting process, Lock improvement, Micro-simulation model, Data analysis, Model diagnostics. |