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Forecasting the Onset and Intensity of Vertically Propagating Mountain Waves Over the Alps
| 题名： | Forecasting the Onset and Intensity of Vertically Propagating Mountain Waves Over the Alps |
| 作者： | Coughlin, Joseph D.; |
| 关键词： | MILITARY OPERATIONS, AIRCRAFT, INTENSITY, WEATHER FORECASTING, CLOUDS, STABILITY, VERIFICATION, HAZARDS, THESES, TURBULENCE, ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES, MOUNTAINS, SAFETY, WIND DIRECTION, SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY. |
| 摘要： | Vertically propagating waves (VPWs) generated by prominent mountain ridges are a severe hazard to military aircraft operations. Properly forecasting the initiation and duration of such a phenomenon is critical, yet quite often missed by turbulence forecasters. A primary reason for poor forecast skill is vague VPW forecasting guidelines at the Air Force operational centers, focusing a majority of attention on the less severe, more common trapped lee wave response. The United States Air Forces in Europe Operational Weather Squadron (USAFE OWS) has requested a tool to aid in improving forecast ability of VPW events. Satellite analysis from October 2003 through March 2004 indicated an occurrence of six major VPW events to the lee of the Alps. Actual verification of turbulence in each VPW was unavailable due to the minimal pilot report (PIREP) database kept for military flights over Europe, therefore, a subjective assessment of turbulent conditions was determined depending on the resulting cloud signature. Using NCEP GFS model analysis and upstream upper air soundings during these events, an average synoptic condition and critical weather parameters were created. These developed tools were then tested from October 2004 through March 2005 to prove their reliability. In a limited data set these tools identified all VPW events, with only a 25%false alarm rate. This is compared to a 6%forecast ability with 0%false alarm rate determined during the 2003-2004 winter season by USAFE OWS forecasters. These new rules should be valuable in that they will provide a much needed capability for synoptic scale turbulence forecasters to better determine hazardous aviation conditions associated with VPWs. |
| 总页数： | 79 |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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