详情

原文传递 Ship-Track Models Based on Poisson-Distributed Port-Departure Times

题名：	Ship-Track Models Based on Poisson-Distributed Port-Departure Times
作者：	Heitmeyer, Richard;
关键词：	MATHEMATICAL MODELS, TIME INTERVALS, SHIPS, PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS, MARKOV PROCESSES, TRACKING, KINEMATICS, ROUTING, POISSON EQUATION, CROSSINGS, GRIDS(COORDINATES), SHIP MOTION, TIME DEPENDENCE, POSITION(LOCATION), VELOCITY
摘要：	This report presents two models that describe the tracks of ships during an arbitrary time interval. Both models consist of a track function that describes the tracks of the individual ships and a probability law on the total number of ships en route during the interval, the initial positions of those ships, and their nominal speeds. The probability law assumes that the ship departure times are Poisson-distributed with a time-varying departure rate and that the ship speeds and ship routes are statistically independent. For both models, it is shown that the ship-track parameters are distributed as a multidimensional, nonhomogeneous, Poisson process with a time-dependent rate function. In the first model, the tracks are deterministic functions with the constraint that a track can neither double back on itself nor intersect any other track. In this model, the track function and the track-parameter rate function are determined from probability densities describing the concentration of ship positions along the routes. In the second model, the ship tracks are obtained as realizations of a Markov process without any constraints on the track crossings.
总页数：	39
报告类型：	科技报告