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原文传递 Application of Latin hypercube sampling to RADTRAN 4 truck accident risk sensitivity analysis

题名：	Application of Latin hypercube sampling to RADTRAN 4 truck accident risk sensitivity analysis
作者：	Kanipe, F.L.;Neuhauser, K.S.;Mills, G.S.;
关键词：	42 ENGINEERING NOT INCLUDED IN OTHER CATEGORIES;56 BIOLOGY AND MEDICINE, APPLIED STUDIES ;99 MATHEMATICS, COMPUTERS, INFORMATION SCIENCE, MANAGEMENT, LAW, MISCELLANEOUS ; RADIATION DOSES; R CODES; RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS; TRANSPORT; RADIATION PROTECTION; SENSITIVITY; ACCIDENTS
摘要：	The sensitivity of calculated dose estimates to various RADTRAN 4 inputs is an available output for incident-free analysis because the defining equations are linear and sensitivity to each variable can be calculated in closed mathematical form. However, the necessary linearity is not characteristic of the equations used in calculation of accident dose risk, making a similar tabulation of sensitivity for RADTRAN 4 accident analysis impossible. Therefore, a study of sensitivity of accident risk results to variation of input parameters was performed using representative routes, isotopic inventories, and packagings. It was determined that, of the approximately two dozen RADTRAN 4 input parameters pertinent to accident analysis, only a subset of five or six has significant influence on typical analyses or is subject to random uncertainties. These five or six variables were selected as candidates for Latin Hypercube Sampling applications. To make the effect of input uncertainties on calculated accident risk more explicit, distributions and limits were determined for two variables which had approximately proportional effects on calculated doses: Pasquill Category probability (PSPROB) and link population density (LPOPD). These distributions and limits were used as input parameters to Sandia`s Latin Hypercube Sampling code to generate 50 sets of RADTRAN 4 input parameters used together with point estimates of other necessary inputs to calculate 50 observations of estimated accident dose risk.Tabulations of the RADTRAN 4 accident risk input variables and their influence on output plus illustrative examples of the LHS calculations, for truck transport situations that are typical of past experience, will be presented .
总页数：	13p
报告类型：	科技报告