详情

Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidance for State Departments of Transportation

项目名称：	Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidance for State Departments of Transportation
摘要：	The ability to create accurate forecasts of project costs is a core competency for state departments of transportation (DOTs). Cost forecasting is used by state DOTs to develop and update transportation plans; program projects; manage transportation improvement programs; administer the bid-letting process; and oversee contracts. Forecasts are used to demonstrate fiscal constraint and to track performance measures of on-time, within budget delivery. Reliable and accurate cost estimates help agencies improve decision making and transparency, and build trust by supporting reliable program delivery. Forecasts have a range of time horizons, from short-term construction project estimates (1 to 2 years), mid-term State Transportation Improvement Programs (STIPs; 3 to 5 years), intermediate-range plans (up to 10 years), to Long-Range Transportation Plans (LRTPs; 20 years). However, forecasting costs over long time horizons poses serious challenges: the longer the time horizon, the greater the risk and uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty include but are not limited to: (1) Cost forecasting approaches: Variation in the quality and quantity of historical data available for forecasting; State DOT capacity for forecasting analysis; and Use of inappropriate cost estimation indices. (2) State DOT program and project delivery: Variation in materials, labor, and other costs; Geographic differences within a state or region; Evolution of scope and design during project development; Project size and complexity; and Availability, amount, and timing of federal, state, and local funding. (3) Contracting and wider economic forces: Contracting methods and requirements that affect cost and cost development; Timing of bid release and lead time to the construction season; Market conditions (e.g., �thin� contracting markets with few firms and little competition; year-to-year variability in the size of the program); and Variation in short-term and long-term inflation (or deflation) rates and volatility of economic conditions. The objective of this research is to provide guidance for state DOTs to improve forecasting for mid-term, intermediate, and long-range time horizons to better account for cost variability, economic volatility, and risk. The project will build upon existing research and current practices in cost forecasting, serving as a resource for state DOTs to augment their forecasting approaches.
状态：	Completed
资金：	250000
资助组织：	Federal Highway Administration
项目负责人：	Hartell, Ann M
执行机构：	Auburn University
主要研究人员：	Rueda-Benavides, Jorge
开始时间：	20180501
预计完成日期：	20200430
实际结束时间：	20200430