摘要: |
One of the causes of the delays of Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) projects is the preparation of unrealistic schedules. This is because the current TxDOT Contract Time Determination System (CTDS) is based on the assumption that the activity durations and production rates are deterministic. This assumption is rather flawed because it does not account for the effect of variability on production rates. This study proposes to evaluate and modify the current CTDS by using probabilistic production rates and activities durations. The study has four objectives: (1) evaluation of the CTDS and HyPRis System; (2) Assessing the impacts of weather, equipment operator, and technology on the production rates; (3) assessing the effect of wrong lead/lag times on the project schedule, and (4) investigating the work items excluded from HyPRIS. For this purpose, the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Monte Carlos Simulation (MCS) shall be used to assess the current CTDS and HyPRIS, and to develop a framework for a new CTDS that accounts for the variability in the work item production rate. This study shall utilize MS-Project supported by VBA codes for PERT and MCS schedule calculations. |