原文传递
Analysis of liquid natural gas as a truck fuel: a system dynamics approach
| 题名： | Analysis of liquid natural gas as a truck fuel: a system dynamics approach |
| 作者： | Rice, R.E.;Mills, J.I.;Mason, T.L.;Sebo, D.E.;Bray, M.A.; |
| 关键词： | 33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS ;03 NATURAL GAS ; TRUCKS; FUEL SUBSTITUTION; LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS; COMBUSTION; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; DIESEL FUELS; COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS; COST; PRICES |
| 摘要： | The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the potential for growth in use of liquid natural gas (LNG) fueled trucks. . A system dynamics model was constructed for the analysis and a variety of scenarios were investigated. The analysis considers the economics of LNG fuel in the context of the trucking industry to identify barriers to the increased use of LNG trucks and potential interventions or leverage points which may overcome these barriers. The study showed that today, LNG use in trucks is not yet economically viable. A large change in the savings from fuel cost or capital cost is needed for the technology to take off. Fleet owners have no way now to benefit from the environmental benefits of LNG fuel nor do they benefit from the clean burning nature of the fuel. Changes in the fuel cost differential between diesel and LNG are not a research issue. However, quantifying the improvements in reliability and wear from the use of clean fuel could support increased maintenance and warranty periods. Many people involved in the use of LNG for trucks believe that LNG has the potential to occupy a niche within the larger diesel truck business. But if LNG in trucks can become economic, the spread of fuel stations and technology improvements could lead to LNG trucks becoming the dominant technology. An assumption in our simulation work is that LNG trucks will be purchased when economically attractive. None of the simulation results show LNG becoming economic but then only to the level of a niche market. |
| 总页数： | 9p |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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