详情

Stochastic logistics module (2)

项目名称：	Stochastic logistics module (2)
摘要：	In 2013 the Swedish Transport Administration (STA) started the process to develop a stochastic logistics module for the national freight transport model Samgods. The first step was performed by VTI (M Abate, I Vierth, R Karlsson) and Significance (G de Jong, J Baak) and is documented in a CTS working paper (No 2014:9 Joint econometric models of freight transport chain and shipment size choice). The project was promising and the STA plans to continue the development process. - WP A1) In this work package an estimation of warehouse costs, order costs and transport costs for road and rail and air will be carried out. The costs comprise distance based costs, time based costs as well as taxes and fees inside and outside Sweden in the Samgods model for 2012. The link costs for sea transports (incl. fees on links like Kiel Canal) and the node costs (costs for stuffing/stripping, loading/unloading, transferring gods in different types of terminals, ports and airports including pilot fees and fairway dues on the nodes inside and outside Sweden) and the time spent in different nodes will be estimated in other projects. The cost information in these different projects will be collected according to the structure in the existing Samgods model. This project aims to complete the full cost update in the Samgods model given the cost input from these two other missions ("Uppdatering/revidering av ASEK-v�rden sj�fart" and "Omlastningskostnader i samh�llsekonomin"). In addition to the current costs in the Samgods model, updates for associated costs will be made for one heavier truck and three longer train types (system train, kombi and wagon load). The measurement of these vehicles is 74 ton for the truck and 750 m for the trains. The transport costs for truck and train should be updated in such a way that the different cost components that comprise the full transport cost should be observable. This WP includes compiling all cost data no later than 29 May 2015 given that the link costs for sea transports and the node costs will be delivered in the Samgods format by 30 April 2015. WP1 will produce a short report in English based on documentation from the other projects and VTI's part for road, rail and air by 12 June 2015. WP1 also encompass an evaluation and possibly corrections of the cost data in the other two missions. - WP A5) comprises two main tasks: 1) A follow up of the CTS working paper (M Abate, I Vierth, G de Jong). A further robustness analysis will be made by covering more commodity classes and by splitting the data into: long and short trips (based on shipment time), domestic and international transports and different shipment size and distance categories. The discrete-continuous models employed in the report take shipment size as the main variable of interest and are based on selection models estimated by MNL models. While these models are advanced and theoretically sound, practical applications can be problematic. An alternative approach is the discrete-continuous model suggested by Holgu�n-Veras (2002) (and applied by Johnson and de Jong (2011) on the 2001 CFS). This approach is an interesting one when the main focus is mode choice because it is possible to apply advanced discrete choice models that overcome the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) problem that most selection models suffer from. 2) Results from 1 above will enable to set up an initial stochastic logistics module. This is a model where a part of the commodities are treated in a stochastic way (for these commodities the model system will be fully reprogrammed to include the estimated stochastic models) and the other in the conventional deterministic way. A comparison between various elasticities calculated with the help of stochastic and deterministic modules (existing Samgods model) commodity by commodity for selected commodities will be made. The delivery will be a set-up of initial stochastic logistics module and comparison of various elasticities calculated with the help of stochastic and deterministic modules commodity by commodity for selected commodities by 15 December 2015. (The model implementation (programming) may be done for the existing model version and PWC-matrices and costs for 2004/5/6 (which will be used in model estimation on the CFS 2004/2005) or for 2012 given that the new model version (with "acceptable" run times) as well as PWC matrices and costs for 2012 will be available by the end of May 2015.) After the delivery the 15 of December an evaluation of the project will be made by the Swedish Transport Administration.
资金：	0.00
资助组织：	Trafikverket, Sweden
项目负责人：	Vierth, Inge
执行机构：	Statens v�g- och transportforskningsinstitut (VTI)
开始时间：	20150201
预计完成日期：	20160201
实际结束时间：	0