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原文传递 Effects of historical and predictive information on ability of transport pilot to predict an alert

题名：	Effects of historical and predictive information on ability of transport pilot to predict an alert
作者：	Trujillo, Anna C.
关键词：	predict；information；toric；transport；alert；pilot；ects；hist；profiles；workstation
摘要：	In the aviation community, the early detection of the development of a possible subsystem problem during a flight is potentially useful for increasing the safety of the flight. Commercial airlines are currently using twin-engine aircraft for extended transport operations over water, and the early detection of a possible problem might increase the flight crew's options for safely landing the aircraft. One method for decreasing the severity of a developing problem is to predict the behavior of the problem so that appropriate corrective actions can be taken. To investigate the pilots' ability to predict long-term events, a computer workstation experiment was conducted in which 18 airline pilots predicted the alert time (the time to an alert) using 3 different dial displays and 3 different parameter behavior complexity levels. The three dial displays were as follows standard (resembling current aircraft round dial presentations) history (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec in the past) and predictive (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec into the future). The time profiles describing the behavior of the parameter consisted of constant rate-of-change profiles, decelerating profiles, and accelerating-then-decelerating profiles. Although the pilots indicated that they preferred the near term predictive dial, the objective data did not support its use. The objective data did show that the time profiles had the most significant effect on performance in estimating the time to an alert.
报告类型：	科技报告