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Quality Assessment Report National Convective Weather Forecast 2 (NCWF-2).
| 题名： | Quality Assessment Report National Convective Weather Forecast 2 (NCWF-2). |
| 作者： | HART, J. E.; KAY, M. P.; MADINE, S.; MAHONEY, J. L.; SESESKE, S. A. |
| 关键词： | AIRLINE SAFETY; CONVECTION(ATMOSPHERIC); THUNDERSTORMS |
| 摘要： | This report summarizes a statistical evaluation of the quality of the National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF-2) product, developed by the Convective Weather Product Development Team under the Federal Aviation Administrations (FAA) Aviation Weather Research Program. The document provides an assessment of the NCWF-2 forecasting capability, including quantitative verification of 1-h and 2-h probabilistic forecasts. The results of this evaluation will be provided to the FAA and National Weather Service (NWS) Aviation Weather Steering Group (AWSG) for its consideration of whether NCWF-2 is ready for transition to operations. The components of the NCWF-2 considered in this evaluation include all forecast lead times and the probabilistic capability. An evaluation of the NCWF-2 motion vectors is presented in a supplemental report. The NCWF-2 is evaluated using the operational National Convective Weather Detection product (NCWD). For a standard of comparison, the quality of the NCWF-2 is compared to the quality of the operational 1-h NCWF, the 1-h NCWD Persistence, the 1- and 2-h C-SIGMET, and the 2-h Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP). Overall statistics for the NCWF-2 were computed from 1 April- 30 September 2005. The statistical methodology is consistent with the approach used in previous evaluations of the NCWF such as Brown and Mahoney (2000). |
| 报告类型： | 科技报告 |
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