摘要: |
Human capital planning in the federal sector relies upon past losses to estimate future turnover. Since the historical loss rate is a lagging indicator, an alternative estimate of future turnover might be derived from information about employee intent-to-leave. However, results from studies of the relationship between intent-to-leave and actual behavior have been mixed. Given the conflicting research findings, we investigated the correspondence between intent-to-leave and actual aggregate turnover rates in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Data describing intent-to-leave in the next 12 months were obtained in Employee Attitude Surveys of employees in the last quarters of fiscal years 1997, 2000, and 2003. Actual turnover rates for the following fiscal years (FY1998, 2001, 2004) were calculated from data extracted from the Agency's official system of personnel records. The proportions of employees indicating intent-to-leave on each survey were compared with actual turnover using a Z-test of proportions. |