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原文传递 Evolution of the Household Vehicle Fleet: Anticipating Fleet Composition, Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Adoption and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions in Austin, Texas.

题名：	Evolution of the Household Vehicle Fleet: Anticipating Fleet Composition, Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Adoption and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions in Austin, Texas.
作者：	S. Musti; K. M. Kockelman;
关键词：	transportation,vehicle choice;fleet evolution, hybrid electric vehicle, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change decisions, owner preferences, microsimulation;
摘要：	Automobile ownership plays an important role in determining vehicle use, emissions, fuel consumption, congestion and traffic safety. This work provides new data on ownership decisions and owner preferences under various scenarios, coupled with calibrated models to microsimulate Austins household-fleet evolution. Results suggest that most Austinites (63 percent, population-corrected share) support a feebate policy to favor more fuel efficient vehicles. Top purchase criteria are vehicle purchase price, type/class, and fuel economy (with 30 percent, 21 percent and 19 percent of respondents placing these in their top three). Most (56%) respondents also indicated that they would seriously consider purchasing a Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) if it were to cost $6,000 more than its conventional, gasoline-powered counterpart. And many respond strongly to signals on the external (health and climate) costs of a vehicles emissions, more strongly than they respond to information on fuel cost savings. 25-year simulations suggest that 19 percent of Austins vehicle fleet could be comprised of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) and PHEVs under adoption of a feebate policy (along with PHEV availability in Year 1 of the simulation, and current gas prices throughout). In comparison to the base year (2009) total VMT, year 2034 vehicle miles traveled (VMT) levels are predicted to increase 154 percent by year 2034 in the TREND scenario. Total CO2 emissions fall by 22 percent in the PRICING scenario relative to the TREND scenario / Supplementary Notes: Sponsored by Southwest Region Univ. Transportation Center, College Station, TX. / Availability Note: Order this product from NTIS by: phone at 1-800-553-NTIS (U.S. customers); (703)605-6000 (other countries); fax at (703)605-6900; and email at orders@ntis.gov. NTIS is located at 5301 Shawnee Road, Alexandria, VA, 22312, USA. / NTIS Prices: PC A09 / NTIS In-house Control Codes: utatti;12091,1101
报告类型：	科技报告