摘要: |
Despite the fact that the trucking industry's price escalation slowed a bit at the end of 2021, the final figures show prices increased at a stunning 12.8% average annual rate last year. Underlying operating costs picked up as well, but at a slightly slower pace than prices, despite sharp hikes in fuel prices. It doesn't take much of a cost/price escalation divergence to make a big impact on margins, as our economic cost models for hundreds of industries have demonstrated over the past 25 years. For trucking, the model estimates that compared to one year ago, the industry's pre-tax operating surplus gained about $1.20 for every $100 worth of services sold. These are rough estimates based on input/output tables and trend analysis, but illuminating nonetheless. The latest number crunching from our economic cost model confirms airliners' profits are struggling. Yes, prices in the entire industry jumped 11.3% in the final quarter of 2021 compared to a year earlier. Non-scheduled air cargo service prices also increased 8.5%. But the price hikes appear to have been too little, too late. Our margin analyses reveal the troubling trends. Total costs escalated about three points faster than prices in 2021. Cost hikes have been impossible with hard operating costs (wages and fuels) up almost 20% last year and soft costs (non-production wages, salaries, benefits and payments for services) up 5.8%. Upshot: Compared to a year ago, the airline industry's operating surplus has roughly dropped more than $6 per $100 of sales. Pressure will remain for more price increases over the next 12 months. |