摘要: |
The rate-of-change charts for transaction prices in the trucking industry quickly reveal one stark fact: The inflation rate in this market is accelerating significantly faster and higher than the previous business cycle. In January 2022, average industry prices soared 20% higher than the same month one year ago. In the three-month-period ending January, prices shot up 18.9% above a year earlier. And in the latest 12-month period, inflation hit 14.3%, a new peak rate. Both truckload and less-than-truckload inflation rates have taken off even faster and hit higher peaks than ever before. We think inflation trends will level off in the first half of 2022 before sinking to reasonable 2% to 3% rates in 2023. Never before have we seen such a high and rapid inflation rate change from the Labor Department's survey of domestic airliners that run cargo on scheduled flights. Here's the story: On a three-month-moving-average basis, the average rate of inflation for this industry had registered a low 1.1% price decline in August 2021. Then, only five months later in December, the inflation rate rocketed straight up to a 10.9% increase. Preliminary data for January 2022 shows inflation slowed to 10.2%, but that's a mighty weak shift. We simply have no data yet to project a more sustained and serious inflation slowdown happening until 2023. |